Abstract. This article attempts to describe the patterns of scientific and technological development of the crop production industry from the perspective of studying the dynamics of productivity as one of the key elements of the system. However, the complexity of such a system as a crop production industry causes the presence of other factors that affect scientific and technological development, which will be considered in the following studies. The purpose of this work is to study the regularities in the dynamics of the grain yield indicator in Russia and its forecast. Methods. The methodological basis of the research is the elements of system analysis, such as comparative analysis, graphical method, and computational and constructive method. The information base consists of statistical collections and historical materials on agriculture of the Russian Empire, the RSFSR, the USSR, and Russia. Results. The article examines the dynamics of grain yield in Russia from 1892 to 2019. the Hypothesis of this study is the assumption that yield is one of the main factors of scientific and technological development of the crop production industry. It is revealed that periods of significant increase in productivity are associated with the introduction of new types of equipment into agricultural production. In this connection, the concept of “periods with a constant level of technical development” was introduced. There are 6 full periods and the last one is the seventh, which began in 2013 and has not yet ended. According to the calculated data, the period with a constant level of technical development, which began in 2013, will last 15 years, until 2028, while the rate of change in yield will be 0.4 c/ha per year. The features of dynamics of yield of grain in Russia (a significant influence of natural-climatic factor, nonlinearity, instability and fluctuation of yield, reduction in the duration of periods with a constant level of technological development, the increasing trend of the rate of change of productivity and a sharp increase occurring after the end of the crisis phenomena in the economy) revealed its frequency and the predicted next period. The duration of the period will be 18 years until 2046. The average yield in the country this year will be at the level of 30, 65 c/ha. The scientific novelty of the study is to identify patterns and build a forecast of grain yield in Russia, based on the introduction of such concepts as the rate of change in yield and periods with a constant level of technical development.
scientific and technological development, scientific and technical progress, crop production, grain production, frequency, forecast, yield, development patterns
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